国际原子能机构支持成员国执行巴黎气候变化协定

源自《国际原子能机构通报》

国际原子能机构通过一项协调研究项目与12个成员国合作制定有效的气候变化减缓战略。

中国在建核电厂。(图/原子能机构C. Brady)

国际原子能机构通过一项协调研究项目与12个成员国合作制定有效的气候变化减缓战略。该协调研究项目的目标是支持国家评价核电在减缓温室气体排放方面的潜在作用,作为根据2015年《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方达成的“巴黎协定”制订国家战略的一部分。

原子能机构能源经济学家Hal Turton说:“这涉及研究核电以及其他低碳能源如何能够在未来几十年为各成员国独特的能源和发展目标做出贡献。” 该协调研究项目基于早期的主动行动,包括一个2006-2009年项目,即支持成员国制订温室气体减缓战略和能源方案,以实现2008-2012年的“京都议定书”目标。

“巴黎协定”的主要目标之一是把全球平均气温较工业化前水平升高幅度限制在远低于2℃,如果可能的话,限制在1.5℃以下。据气候行动追踪组织称,这一目标虽然具有挑战性,但在技术上是可行的,目前的气候政策将使全球气温在2100年之前保持在高于工业化前水平2.6℃至4.0℃。即使有“巴黎协定”缔约方已作出的承诺,到2100年这一温升最终仍可能高达3.2℃。参与协调研究项目的国家研究小组正在评价国家能源部门的发展情况并分析遏制全球气温升高的各种方案。

促进知识交流

作为该协调研究项目的一部分,原子能机构通过举办定期研究协调会议支持信息和经验的交流。这些会议促进了关于制定国家能源战略的广泛讨论,以及成员国与原子能机构和其他组织专家之间的信息交流。

2018年6月在维也纳举行了三次会议中的第二次会议,标志着该协调研究项目进入中期阶段。研究小组介绍了政策、研究进展和初步结果。许多团队正在使用原子能机构开发的既定能源规划工具来探索适合其独特状况的替代能源发展道路。协调研究项目最终将在2019年底举行第三次也是最后一次会议,参与国将就未来几十年内核能在国家气候变化减缓方面的潜在作用提出详细的调查结果。

该协调研究项目提供的具体结果和基础预计有助于正在根据“巴黎协定”制定和定期审查“国家自主贡献”。

“该协调研究项目一直是推动和思考南非核电研究的绝佳平台。”南非能源研究中心高级研究人员Tara Caetano说。她补充说,该协调研究项目年会提供了一个分享研究人员工作的平台,使他们能够向他人学习以及学习各自的国家经验。

利用原子能机构工具进行气候变化减缓和能源规划

原子能机构开发的工具正在帮助成员国包括参与协调研究项目的成员国评价其能源部门的各种备选方案和战略,包括核电在未来可以发挥的作用。

“过去,克罗地亚参与了原子能机构的各项活动,并从中受益,它设法加强其能源规划能力和推广使用原子能机构的能源系统评定工具。”克罗地亚能源研究所顾问Mario Tot说。“我们向他人学习,我们为他人的利益而努力。”

在过去四十年中,原子能机构开发了一套分析工具,包括:

  • 能量平衡工作室(EBS)——用于促进能源数据的收集和组织;
  • 能源供应系统替代方案及其一般环境影响模型(MESSAGE)——用于分析能源供应战略
  • 能源需求分析模型(MAED)——用于研究未来的能源需求
  • 维也纳自动系统规划程序包(WASP)——用于规划电力部门扩张;
  • 电力部门扩展计划的财务分析(FINPLAN)——用于评价电力项目的财务影响
  • 估算发电影响的简化方案(SIMPACTS)——用于分析电力项目对人体健康和农业的影响
  • 可持续能源发展指标(ISED)——用于分析和监测可持续能源发展战略
  • 气候、土地利用、能源和水(CLEW)——用于分析主要资源系统之间的相互作用

 

本文刊载于题为“核技术用于气候:减缓、监测和适应”的2018年9月版《国际原子能机构通报》中。

barakah-nuclear-power-plant-1140x640.jpg

阿拉伯联合酋长国巴拉卡核电厂。(图/国际原子能机构)

Fostering knowledge exchange

As part of this CRP, the IAEA supports the exchange of information and experience by hosting regular research coordination meetings. These meetings have facilitated extensive discussions on the development of national energy strategies, as well as information exchange between Member States and experts from the IAEA and other organizations.

The second of three meetings took place in Vienna in June 2018, marking the halfway stage of the CRP. Research teams gave presentations on policies, research progress and preliminary results. Many teams are using the established energy planning tools developed by the IAEA to explore alternative energy pathways suited to their unique conditions. The CRP will culminate with a third and final meeting in late 2019, where participating countries will present their detailed findings on the potential role of nuclear energy in national climate change mitigation over the coming decades.

Both the specific results and the foundation provided by this CRP are expected to contribute to the ongoing formulation and regular review of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

“The CRP has been an excellent platform to drive and reflect on research on nuclear power in South Africa,” said Tara Caetano, a senior researcher at the country’s Energy Research Centre. The CRP annual meetings provide a platform to share researchers’ work, enabling them to learn from others and their respective country experiences, she added.

Use of IAEA tools for climate change mitigation and energy planning

Tools developed by the IAEA are helping Member States — including those participating in the CRP — to assess various options and strategies for their energy sector, including the role nuclear power can play in the future.

“In the past, Croatia has participated in and benefited from various IAEA activities and managed to enhance its energy planning capabilities and deploy the IAEA energy system assessment tools,” said Mario Tot, advisor at the Croatian Energy Institute. “We learn from others and we contribute for the benefit of others.”

Over the last four decades, the IAEA has developed a suite of analytical tools that include:

  • EBS: (Energy Balance Studio) – to facilitate collection and organization of energy data;
  • MESSAGE: (Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts) – to analyse energy supply strategies;
  • MAED: (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) – to study future energy demand;
  • WASP: (Wien Automatic System Planning Package) – to plan power sector expansion;
  • FINPLAN: (Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans) – to assess financial implications of a power project;
  • SIMPACTS: (Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity Generation) – to analyse impacts on human health and agriculture of a power project;
  • ISED: (Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development) – to analyse and monitor sustainable energy development strategies;
  • CLEW: (Climate, Land use, Energy and Water) – to analyse interactions among key resource systems.

The Paris Agreement and the essential role nuclear power has to play for the targets set to be met is a topic experts discussed during the IAEA's 2018 Scientific Forum. For more information about the Forum, titled Nuclear Technology for Climate: Mitigation, Monitoring and Adaptation, click here.

barakah-nuclear-power-plant-1140x640.jpg

Barakah nuclear power plant, United Arab Emirates. (Photo: IAEA)