原子能机构的一个新的数据动画显示，如果世界有一个合理机会实现气候变化目标，那就需要突破历史市场范围显著扩大全球核电生产，包括在有兴趣引入这种可靠低碳电力的所谓启动核电国家。
原子能机构数据动画：各国启动核电来实现气候目标
原子能机构的一个新的数据动画显示，如果世界有一个合理机会实现气候变化目标，那就需要突破历史市场范围显著扩大全球核电生产，包括在有兴趣引入这种可靠低碳电力的所谓启动核电国家。
该动画基于国际能源机构2019年《世界能源展望》中的可持续发展假想方案。这个假设模型呈现了国际能源机构称为全球能源部门如何发展才能实现能源相关可持续发展目标的“宏大而务实的构想”。这与按照“巴黎协议”的努力在2050年前将全球气温升幅限制在高于工业化前水平1.5℃以内的50%的机会1/一致。
目前，虽然核电在亚洲不断扩大，但随着北美洲等其他传统市场的增长放缓，一些欧洲国家正在逐步淘汰核电。动画假想方案反映了这些趋势，显示中国未来20年的核发电容量将翻两番，从而超过北美洲成为领先的核电生产国。假想方案中，启动核电国家以及非洲、东欧和南美洲已运行核电的国家的核发电容量将翻一番以上。
“在全球向清洁能源转型的过程中，启动核电国家发挥着关键作用，”原子能机构核基础结构发展科科长Milko Kovachev说，“它们需要低碳能源助力经济增长并实现气候目标 — 使它们实现目标的这一假想方案包括更多核电。”
28个启动核电国家目前正在考虑引入核电。其中两个国家 — 白俄罗斯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的首座核电厂即将投入运营，而孟加拉国和土耳其也已开始建造其首座核动力堆。
原子能机构支持各国为安全和可靠的核电计划发展基础结构。上周，来自原子能机构41个成员国的约100名与会者出席了在维也纳原子能机构总部举行的第15次核电基础结构发展中的专题问题年度技术会议，分享了建立安全和成功的核电计划所需的基础结构方面的最佳实践和经验教训。
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1/ 这一假想方案假定部署负排放技术来消除大气中吸收热量的温室气体。如果没有这种部署，假想方案与将温度升幅限制在1.8℃以内的66%的机会一致。
The animation is based on the Sustainable Development Scenario in the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2019. The hypothetical model presents what the IEA calls “an ambitious and pragmatic vision” for how the global energy sector could develop to achieve the energy-related Sustainable Development Goals. It is consistent with a 50% chance of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, in line with the Paris Agreement’s efforts1/.
Currently, some European countries are phasing out nuclear power as growth slows in other traditional markets such as North America while expanding in Asia. Those trends are reflected in the animated scenario, which shows nuclear power generating capacity quadrupling over the next two decades in China, which overtakes North America as the leading nuclear power generator. In newcomer countries as well as some nations that already operate nuclear power in Africa, eastern Europe and South America, nuclear power generating capacity more than doubles in the scenario.
“Newcomer countries have a key role to play in the global transition to clean energy,” said Milko Kovachev, Head of the IAEA’s Nuclear Infrastructure Development Section. “They need low carbon energy both to power economic growth and to meet climate goals—the scenario that gets them there includes more nuclear power.”
Twenty-eight newcomer countries are currently considering introducing nuclear power. Two of these – Belarus and the United Arab Emirates – are nearing operation of their first nuclear power plants, while Bangladesh and Turkey have begun constructing their first nuclear power reactors.
The IAEA supports countries in developing the infrastructure for a safe and secure nuclear power programme. Last week, some 100 participants from 41 IAEA Member States attended the 15th annual Technical Meeting on Topical Issues in the Development of Nuclear Power Infrastructure at the Agency’s headquarters in Vienna, to share good practices and lessons learned in establishing the infrastructure required for a safe and successful nuclear power programme.
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1/ This scenario assumes the deployment of negative emission technology to remove heat-trapping greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Without such deployment, the scenario is consistent with a 66% chance of limiting the temperature increase to 1.8°C.