Calculating the New Global Nuclear Terrorism Threat
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that the ruthlessness of the 11 September attacks has alerted the world to the potential of nuclear terrorism - making it "far more likely" that terrorists could target nuclear facilities, nuclear material and radioactive sources worldwide.
Experts from around the world are meeting at the IAEA on 29 October to 2 November at an international symposium on nuclear safeguards, verification, and security. A special session on 2 November focuses on the issue of combating nuclear terrorism.
"There have been two nuclear shocks to the world already - the Chernobyl accident and the IAEA's discovery of Iraq's clandestine nuclear weapons programme. It will be vital we do all in our power to prevent the third," says Mohamed ElBaradei, IAEA Director General. "The willingness of terrorists to commit suicide to achieve their evil aims makes the nuclear terrorism threat far more likely than it was before September 11th."
According to the IAEA, since 1993, there have been 175 cases of trafficking in nuclear material and 201 cases of trafficking in other radioactive sources (medical, industrial). However, only 18 of these cases have actually involved small amounts of highly enriched uranium or plutonium.
While the level of security at nuclear facilities is generally considered to be very high, security of medical and industrial radiation sources is disturbingly weak in some countries, the IAEA finds. "The controls on nuclear and radiation sources are uneven," says Mr. ElBaradei. "Security is as good as its weakest link and loose nuclear material in any country is a potential threat to the entire world."
IAEA experts are concerned that terrorists weapon of choice could be a crude radiological dispersal device, or a "dirty bomb," using radioactive sources commonly used in medicine, agriculture and industry. The number of radioactive sources around the world is vast: those used in radiotherapy alone are in the order of ten thousand. Many more are used in industry. "Certainly, the effects of a dirty bomb would not be devastating in terms of human life," says the IAEA. "But contamination in even small quantities could have major psychological and economic effects."
In the short term, the IAEA estimates that at least $30-$50 million annually will be needed to strengthen and expand its programs to meet this terrorist threat.
The IAEA, the UN nuclear watchdog agency based in Vienna, helps countries around the world to prevent, intercept and respond to terrorist acts and other nuclear safety and security incidents. It has the only international response system in place that would be in a position to immediately react to assist countries in case of a radiological emergency caused by a nuclear terrorist attack.
To attend the conference or receive the full 8-page press release, contact Melissa Fleming, at (+43-1) 2600-21275; Mobile: (+43) 664-325 7376,
E-mail: M. Fleming@iaea.org.